Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 28 games
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
dnm · 15 games
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 14 games
Silencer
albinozebra · 13 games
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 10 games
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 10 games
nouns
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 12 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Moo · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Moo · 5 games
Snapfire
Lelis · 5 games
Tiny
Gunnar · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
739 picks · 471 bans
Tiny
527 picks · 384 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 456 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 584 bans
Snapfire
382 picks · 256 bans
Death Prophet
371 picks · 615 bans
Ember Spirit
348 picks · 743 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total60% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:35
5RATFORCESTAFF 45%nouns 55%
The model gave 55% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladednm
RazorYamSun
Leshracred2
Ember SpiritGunnar
Dragon KnightSpeeed
BatriderMoo
RubickMoOz
TuskLelis
UndyingGiant
IoHusky
Game 2prediction correct22:30
5RATFORCESTAFF 46%nouns 54%
The model gave 54% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 45:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistdnm
Ember SpiritGunnar
Leshracred2
Shadow FiendYamSun
Primal BeastSpeeed
DoomMoo
RubickMoOz
TuskLelis
UndyingGiant
IoHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 60%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2