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BTS Pro Series Season 12: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SG e-sportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 17 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Giant · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
albinozebra · 7 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 6 games
83%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
albinozebra · 6 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
40%

SG e-sports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 437 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
456 picks · 638 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
351 picks · 476 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 768 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 494 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
294 picks · 376 bans
55%
Dazzle
Dazzle
252 picks · 161 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
250 picks · 814 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed60:15
5RATFORCESTAFF 34%SG e-sports 66%
The model gave 66% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 39:46.
Game 2prediction correct20:45
5RATFORCESTAFF 34%SG e-sports 66%
The model gave 66% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 43:44.
Game 3prediction missed64:36
5RATFORCESTAFF 34%SG e-sports 66%
The model gave 66% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 1:21:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 66%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3