5RATFORCESTAFF vs The Cut — prediction DPC2—СА · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3

result vs prediction

5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2

series probability

70%30%

probability at match start · final 1:2

The Cutwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5RATFORCESTAFF

No games played over 6 months.

The Cut

Leshracoften banned

Scourge McDuck · 1 game

Lunaoften banned

Scourge McDuck · 1 game

100%

Razoroften banned

Scourge McDuck · 1 game

Slarkoften banned

Scourge McDuck · 1 game

Spectreoften banned

Scourge McDuck · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

311 picks · 440 bans

50%

Monkey King

274 picks · 681 bans

59%

Bane

273 picks · 205 bans

60%

Tidehunter

263 picks · 406 bans

45%

Weaver

245 picks · 514 bans

57%

Snapfire

241 picks · 133 bans

48%

Void Spirit

213 picks · 247 bans

45%

Lina

212 picks · 471 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% 5RATFORCESTAFF

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total70% 5RATFORCESTAFF

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed10:28

5RATFORCESTAFF 60%The Cut 40%

The model gave 60% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by The Cut in 31:14.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo