ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
Lil_Nick · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 7 games
Tiny
Giant · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Giant · 6 games
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
dnm · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
The Warden · 19 games
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 13 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 11 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
616 picks · 464 bans
Puck
431 picks · 936 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 187 bans
Mars
358 picks · 585 bans
Dawnbreaker
350 picks · 406 bans
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 456 bans
Bane
316 picks · 196 bans
Marci
304 picks · 602 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
5RATFORCESTAFF 37%Wildcard Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 30:06.
Game 2prediction missed30:28
5RATFORCESTAFF 37%Wildcard Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 47:49.
Game 3prediction correct8:36
5RATFORCESTAFF 37%Wildcard Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 33:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 63%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3