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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
747loss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

747

Mars
Marsoften banned
db- · 2 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Karl · 2 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Boomy · 2 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Jaunuel · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jaunuel · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boomy · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Karl · 1 game
0%

Neon Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Hishge · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ken · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
239 picks · 374 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
225 picks · 299 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
213 picks · 99 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
211 picks · 199 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
190 picks · 361 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
186 picks · 519 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% 747
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:28
747 46%Neon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 39:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunainYourdreaM
54% · 44 games48% · 43 games
LinaKen
Lina
Mars
MarsKarl
48% · 58 games49% · 64 games
Centaur WarrunnerJG
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
Tidehunterdb-
56% · 64 games54% · 94 games
TechiesBombi
Techies
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernJaunuel
29% · 13 games
Pudge
PudgeBoomy
46% · 22 games
Game 2prediction missed19:15
747 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by 747 in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaKarl
56% · 59 games52% · 165 games
PangolierKen
Pangolier
Sven
SveninYourdreaM
54% · 66 games45% · 96 games
BrewmasterJG
Brewmaster
Tidehunter
Tidehunterdb-
54% · 78 games36% · 52 games
HoodwinkBombi
Hoodwink
Chen
ChenJaunuel
60% · 39 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBoomy
44% · 71 game
Game 3prediction correct21:29
747 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunainYourdreaM
52% · 69 games54% · 125 games
Storm SpiritKen
Storm Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainKarl
52% · 62 games46% · 131 game
TimbersawJG
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerdb-
46% · 78 games51% · 122 games
GrimstrokeBombi
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoomy
52% · 105 games
Lion
LionJaunuel
47% · 64 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 57%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3