?
arrow_backBack to match
The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 52 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 34 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 29 games
72%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 28 games
64%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 26 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 24 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
MieRo · 22 games
59%

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 34 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 29 games
48%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 27 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 27 games
63%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 25 games
72%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
677 picks · 454 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
637 picks · 674 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
573 picks · 1117 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
500 picks · 1043 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1236 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
496 picks · 475 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
462 picks · 711 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
437 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:12
9Pandas 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
50% · 109 games47% · 210 games
Monkey KingPakazs
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
52% · 211 games49% · 111 games
BroodmotherChris Luck
Broodmother
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
51% · 310 games47% · 53 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
45% · 180 games51% · 330 games
TechiesMatthew
Techies
Pugna
PugnaSolo
56% · 163 games51% · 269 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed41:29
9Pandas 48%Evil Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 58:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinkiyotaka
53% · 126 games53% · 202 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Windranger
WindrangerRAMZES666
43% · 133 games50% · 201 game
Storm SpiritChris Luck
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomMieRo
48% · 293 games52% · 208 games
Keeper of the LightWisper
Keeper of the Light
Enchantress
EnchantressAntares
48% · 239 games53% · 150 games
Spirit BreakerMatthew
Spirit Breaker
Pugna
PugnaSolo
47% · 196 games53% · 226 games
SilencerPanda
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 53%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2