ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Techies
Antares · 37 games
Rubick
Antares · 35 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 16 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kiyotaka · 15 games
Execration
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
Rubick
Shanks · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1004 picks · 712 bans
Tiny
620 picks · 456 bans
Disruptor
584 picks · 438 bans
Nature's Prophet
554 picks · 892 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 388 bans
Snapfire
511 picks · 360 bans
Death Prophet
502 picks · 1195 bans
Ember Spirit
501 picks · 1096 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 31%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:28
9Pandas 54%Execration 46%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Execration in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerRAMZES666
MuertaPalos
Death Prophetkiyotaka
DawnbreakerTino-
UnderlordMieRo
EnchantressShanks
Crystal MaidenRodjER
KunkkaBob
RubickAntares
Game 2prediction correct49:5
9Pandas 55%Execration 45%
The model gave 55% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 23:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerRAMZES666
Lone DruidPalos
Bounty HunterMieRo
Dark SeerTino-
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Void SpiritBob
Skywrath MageAntares
Nyx AssassinShanks
OracleRodjER
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2