Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Techies
Antares · 42 games
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 22 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 20 games
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
Hydra
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 27 games
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 27 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 14 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kami · 13 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 12 games
Snapfire
Lefitan · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
707 picks · 602 bans
Disruptor
570 picks · 499 bans
Beastmaster
472 picks · 1148 bans
Doom
466 picks · 852 bans
Ember Spirit
421 picks · 1063 bans
Pangolier
399 picks · 857 bans
Enchantress
396 picks · 563 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:20
9Pandas 63%Hydra 37%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 45:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritRAMZES666
TerrorbladeKami
Morphlingkiyotaka
UnderlordCloud
MagnusMieRo
Ember SpiritWorick
WindrangerAntares
MiranaLil
LichSolo
UndyingHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct18:13
9Pandas 65%Hydra 35%
The model gave 65% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenRAMZES666
MedusaKami
Magnuskiyotaka
Void SpiritWorick
TimbersawMieRo
VisageCloud
TechiesAntares
Spirit BreakerLil
LichSolo
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 77%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2