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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiessignature
Antares · 38 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 36 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 19 games
68%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 18 games
61%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
77%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
so bad · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 11 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hellscream · 11 games
82%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malr1ne · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
770 picks · 602 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 450 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 381 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
417 picks · 976 bans
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 677 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
399 picks · 594 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 919 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
389 picks · 210 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 75%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
9Pandas 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
48% · 113 games49% · 138 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
50% · 256 games49% · 172 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritkiyotaka
52% · 61 game52% · 182 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesAntares
48% · 56 games41% · 12 games
ClinkzHellscream
Clinkz
Oracle
OracleSolo
51% · 27 games59% · 9 games
Vengeful Spiritso bad
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct31:6
9Pandas 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 27:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
48% · 112 games48% · 169 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
45% · 86 games46% · 219 games
BeastmasterCorrupted
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMieRo
52% · 85 games54% · 192 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressSolo
45% · 283 games58% · 31 game
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
53% · 119 games56% · 74 games
Silencerso bad
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct33:13
9Pandas 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRAMZES666
47% · 80 games35% · 64 games
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
Phantom Lancer
Doom
DoomMieRo
54% · 170 games51% · 266 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
51% · 196 games52% · 365 games
BeastmasterCorrupted
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAntares
51% · 79 games49% · 19 games
ClinkzHellscream
Clinkz
Undying
UndyingSolo
57% · 215 games47% · 26 games
Vengeful Spiritso bad
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 70%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3