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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
nounsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 52 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 34 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 28 games
71%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 24 games
54%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 24 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
MieRo · 22 games
59%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 22 games
64%

nouns

Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 21 game
57%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Husky · 11 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 470 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
637 picks · 667 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
574 picks · 1124 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 483 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
513 picks · 1251 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
504 picks · 1059 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
470 picks · 711 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
446 picks · 933 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:23
9Pandas 51%nouns 49%
The model gave 51% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by nouns in 51:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
49% · 197 games56% · 159 games
Naga SirenYamSun
Naga Siren
Morphling
MorphlingRAMZES666
49% · 306 games46% · 166 games
LinaGunnar
Lina
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMieRo
42% · 102 games55% · 92 games
Anti-MageMoo
Anti-Mage
Enigma
EnigmaAntares
52% · 230 games54% · 223 games
TechiesLelis
Techies
Undying
UndyingSolo
48% · 389 games47% · 584 games
RubickHusky
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct26:4
9Pandas 53%nouns 47%
The model gave 53% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 24:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
52% · 168 games53% · 136 games
BroodmotherMoo
Broodmother
Doom
DoomMieRo
48% · 377 games51% · 246 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
51% · 274 games48% · 390 games
Ember SpiritGunnar
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingSolo
45% · 430 games57% · 165 games
PugnaLelis
Pugna
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
49% · 223 games47% · 535 games
RubickHusky
Rubick
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2