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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 26 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Solo · 21 game
57%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 19 games
37%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 17 games
65%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Solo · 15 games
47%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 30 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 23 games
70%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 17 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 17 games
24%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
532 picks · 732 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
495 picks · 576 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
491 picks · 612 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 411 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
482 picks · 578 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
447 picks · 802 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
445 picks · 983 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
402 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total59% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:16
9Pandas 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
55% · 194 games43% · 314 games
Dragon KnightWoE
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark Seerlaise
61% · 182 games48% · 369 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Tiny
TinySerenada
54% · 544 games47% · 181 game
MagnusSSS
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinlupsione
61% · 178 games43% · 103 games
ZeusRein
Zeus
Warlock
WarlockSolo
51% · 87 games37% · 218 games
Dark Willownot me
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct26:40
9Pandas 45%One Move 55%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 54:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSerenada
49% · 139 games46% · 43 games
BloodseekerWoE
Bloodseeker
Abaddon
AbaddonV-Tune
38% · 45 games49% · 363 games
TinyDifference
Tiny
Beastmaster
Beastmasterlaise
52% · 238 games47% · 70 games
TidehunterSSS
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockSolo
52% · 69 games56% · 296 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Clockwerk
Clockwerklupsione
57% · 328 games46% · 47 games
Rikinot me
Riki
Game 3prediction missed31:25
9Pandas 47%One Move 53%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 48:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightV-Tune
44% · 334 games48% · 43 games
ClinkzWoE
Clinkz
Puck
PuckSerenada
57% · 258 games48% · 368 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal Beastlaise
54% · 278 games46% · 582 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Clockwerk
Clockwerklupsione
54% · 428 games46% · 425 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Pugna
PugnaSolo
55% · 180 games52% · 60 games
Rikinot me
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 59%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3