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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 47 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 39 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 26 games
62%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 26 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 25 games
72%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 21 game
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 21 game
67%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 57 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 30 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 27 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 26 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 22 games
73%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
737 picks · 582 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
610 picks · 523 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
554 picks · 1292 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
550 picks · 1096 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
494 picks · 557 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
472 picks · 953 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1120 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
453 picks · 646 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:12
9Pandas 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautRAMZES666
55% · 90 games49% · 201 game
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Earthshaker
Earthshakerkiyotaka
50% · 148 games41% · 274 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
51% · 511 games51% · 145 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Techies
TechiesAntares
55% · 218 games53% · 236 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Pugna
PugnaSolo
48% · 128 games48% · 239 games
UndyingMiposhka
Undying
Game 2prediction correct48:56
9Pandas 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:06:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkerkiyotaka
55% · 12 games46% · 79 games
Phantom LancerYatoro
Phantom Lancer
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
50% · 188 games49% · 106 games
ZeusLarl
Zeus
Techies
TechiesAntares
53% · 178 games52% · 287 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsMieRo
56% · 86 games42% · 108 games
LichMiposhka
Lich
Batrider
BatriderSolo
49% · 216 games52% · 100 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct10:27
9Pandas 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linakiyotaka
48% · 56 games53% · 122 games
SlarkYatoro
Slark
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMieRo
54% · 252 games53% · 155 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerRAMZES666
45% · 84 games49% · 117 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Bane
BaneAntares
56% · 32 games48% · 121 game
PugnaMiposhka
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerSolo
49% · 168 games48% · 77 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3