DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9z Teamloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TT Gamewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9z Team
No games played over 6 months.
TT Game
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
522 picks · 716 bans
Muerta
429 picks · 312 bans
Phoenix
426 picks · 699 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 399 bans
Phantom Assassin
379 picks · 645 bans
Bristleback
378 picks · 869 bans
Magnus
378 picks · 1001 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 9z Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% 9z Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:50
9z Team 52%TT Game 48%
The model gave 52% on 9z Team — the game was taken by TT Game in 38:51.
Game 2prediction correct38:19
9z Team 52%TT Game 48%
The model gave 52% on 9z Team — the game was taken by 9z Team in 32:37.
Game 3prediction missed37:38
9z Team 52%TT Game 48%
The model gave 52% on 9z Team — the game was taken by TT Game in 46:06.
Model check result
Model favorite9z Team · 52%
Series resultTT Game 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3