The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AcatSukiwin 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AcatSuki
No games played over 6 months.
Infinity Esports
Rubick
Kiri · 13 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 10 games
Clockwerk
Prada · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Frank · 7 games
Snapfire
Kiri · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 6 games
Tiny
Kiri · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
502 picks · 538 bans
Rubick
452 picks · 225 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 697 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 625 bans
Morphling
339 picks · 708 bans
Spirit Breaker
335 picks · 343 bans
Timbersaw
330 picks · 784 bans
Undying
319 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% AcatSuki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:10
AcatSuki 30%Infinity Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 35:09.
Game 2prediction correct21:9
AcatSuki 30%Infinity Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 36:22.
Game 3prediction correct41:30
AcatSuki 30%Infinity Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 1:06:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 70%
Series resultAcatSuki 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3