DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Advance Esportswin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
RCHloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Advance Esports
No games played over 6 months.
RCH
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 276 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 452 bans
Rubick
321 picks · 310 bans
Hoodwink
316 picks · 366 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 420 bans
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 467 bans
Enchantress
294 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Advance Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Advance Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Advance Esports 54%RCH 46%
The model gave 54% on Advance Esports — the game was taken by Advance Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteAdvance Esports · 54%
Series resultAdvance Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1