ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Advance Esportsloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Advance Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Winter Bear
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Phoenix
Stoic · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Snapfire
Stoic · 2 games
Venomancer
Stoic · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
458 picks · 614 bans
Clockwerk
392 picks · 428 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 475 bans
Luna
334 picks · 417 bans
Enchantress
313 picks · 603 bans
Dark Willow
309 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 353 bans
Sand King
273 picks · 805 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength61% Advance Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:63
Advance Esports 35%Winter Bear 65%
The model gave 65% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 39:53.
Game 2prediction correct16:57
Advance Esports 35%Winter Bear 65%
The model gave 65% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 32:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 65%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2