Чемпионат России Сбера 2025 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionAAFK30win 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PTPrime Timeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AFK30
No games played over 6 months.
Prime Time
Ursaoften banned
solji · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 544 bans
Shadow Shaman
457 picks · 500 bans
Ringmaster
428 picks · 224 bans
Jakiro
384 picks · 276 bans
Tusk
380 picks · 368 bans
Terrorblade
365 picks · 806 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 530 bans
Storm Spirit
352 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% AFK30
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% AFK30
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:34
AFK30 52%Prime Time 48%
The model gave 52% on AFK30 — the game was taken by Prime Time in 1:04:29.
Game 2prediction correct32:23
AFK30 52%Prime Time 48%
The model gave 52% on AFK30 — the game was taken by AFK30 in 45:06.
Game 3prediction correct31:14
AFK30 52%Prime Time 48%
The model gave 52% on AFK30 — the game was taken by AFK30 in 37:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteAFK30 · 52%
Series resultAFK30 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3