FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Aim Possibleloss 0:1series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hydrawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aim Possible
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
470 picks · 398 bans
Phoenix
467 picks · 575 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 553 bans
Clockwerk
431 picks · 529 bans
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 771 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 459 bans
Lion
403 picks · 232 bans
Magnus
398 picks · 870 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Aim Possible 26%Hydra 74%
The model gave 74% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 74%
Series resultHydra 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1