BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aim Possibleloss 1:2series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Ancient Apparition
Garbat1y · 4 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
zenica · 4 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 3 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 34 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 31 game
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 31 game
Batridersignature
queezy · 30 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 30 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 28 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
343 picks · 316 bans
Puck
327 picks · 821 bans
Snapfire
294 picks · 148 bans
Pugna
286 picks · 317 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 769 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 244 bans
Warlock
268 picks · 123 bans
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total86% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:45
Aim Possible 27%Runa Team 73%
The model gave 73% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnuszenica
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
58% · 29 games
Lifestealernesfeer
33% · 45 games
MarsAlberkaaa
47% · 77 games
Batriderqueezy
42% · 29 games
ChenHduo
Game 2prediction missed34:5
Aim Possible 23%Runa Team 77%
The model gave 77% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dazzlezenica
Void Spiritnicky`cool
65% · 13 games
Morphlingnesfeer
little data
SlardarAlberkaaa
50% · 16 games
Snapfirequeezy
46% · 9 games
Naga SirenHduo
Game 3prediction correct15:31
Aim Possible 25%Runa Team 75%
The model gave 75% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladezenica
Lifestealernesfeer
67% · 32 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
63% · 23 games
AxeAlberkaaa
60% · 69 games
WarlockHduo
39% · 29 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 86%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3