CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aim Possibleloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Garbat1y · 4 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 2 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 20 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 17 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 15 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Mirele · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
577 picks · 591 bans
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 424 bans
Tiny
356 picks · 365 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 508 bans
Terrorblade
326 picks · 695 bans
Puck
321 picks · 853 bans
Nature's Prophet
306 picks · 631 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 51%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:27
Aim Possible 36%Yellow Submarine 64%
The model gave 64% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 47:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BaneGarbat1y
Nature's Prophetbottega
32% · 18 games
Queen of PainMirele
22% · 5 games
TidehunterInfernal
46% · 9 games
PugnaXakoda
45% · 27 games
Batridermrls
Game 2prediction correct20:35
Aim Possible 33%Yellow Submarine 67%
The model gave 67% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderGarbat1y
Abaddonbottega
43% · 90 games
Storm SpiritMirele
34% · 25 games
AxeInfernal
49% · 83 games
Muertamrls
44% · 76 games
Shadow ShamanXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 83%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2