DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSloss 0:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Balu Teamwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ALIS VENTORUS
No games played over 6 months.
Balu Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
664 picks · 773 bans
Tiny
546 picks · 519 bans
Tusk
499 picks · 413 bans
Warlock
455 picks · 312 bans
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1118 bans
Puck
397 picks · 801 bans
Phoenix
395 picks · 319 bans
Mars
390 picks · 598 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% ALIS VENTORUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ALIS VENTORUS 65%Balu Team 35%
The model gave 65% on ALIS VENTORUS — the game was taken by Balu Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteALIS VENTORUS · 65%
Series resultBalu Team 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1