?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSwin 2:1
series probability
4%96%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ALIS VENTORUS

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Delight · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
paw · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
waveformn · 2 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Norma · 2 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Norma · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 1 game
0%

Nigma Galaxy

Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 27 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 27 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 22 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 22 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
642 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 455 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 413 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
433 picks · 290 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
422 picks · 404 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1102 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 843 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 570 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:26
ALIS VENTORUS 17%Nigma Galaxy 83%
The model gave 83% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunapaw
46% · 116 games44% · 190 games
Muertarincyq
Muerta
Sand King
Sand KingPanda
51% · 140 games51% · 214 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterNorma
51% · 205 games50% · 367 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkwaveformn
55% · 288 games51% · 137 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDelight
55% · 304 games45% · 145 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct11:26
ALIS VENTORUS 17%Nigma Galaxy 83%
The model gave 83% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertapaw
52% · 112 games52% · 119 games
Templar Assassinrincyq
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerPanda
51% · 108 games48% · 175 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNorma
50% · 94 games46% · 242 games
Queen of PainNo!ob
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderDelight
50% · 278 games61% · 60 games
OracleGH
Oracle
Rubick
Rubickwaveformn
53% · 70 games41% · 66 games
Spirit BreakerOmaR
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction missed24:29
ALIS VENTORUS 17%Nigma Galaxy 83%
The model gave 83% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 48:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingpaw
56% · 181 game50% · 206 games
Nature's ProphetNo!ob
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterNorma
52% · 152 games51% · 199 games
Bristlebackrincyq
Bristleback
Huskar
HuskarPanda
50% · 53 games40% · 162 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkwaveformn
53% · 211 games57% · 113 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Dazzle
DazzleDelight
46% · 105 games37% · 22 games
OracleGH
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 96%
Series resultALIS VENTORUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3