Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance.LATAMwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Starsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Keyd Stars
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 13 games
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
4dr · 10 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
Spirit Breaker
Kingrd · 7 games
Tiny
Kingrd · 7 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
864 picks · 605 bans
Tiny
618 picks · 428 bans
Treant Protector
530 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 429 bans
Nature's Prophet
518 picks · 830 bans
Snapfire
460 picks · 322 bans
Death Prophet
459 picks · 957 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Alliance.LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:35
Alliance.LATAM 57%Keyd Stars 43%
The model gave 57% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 50:31.
Game 2prediction missed22:36
Alliance.LATAM 57%Keyd Stars 43%
The model gave 57% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 33:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance.LATAM · 57%
Series resultAlliance.LATAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2