Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eex-Monaspawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
ex-Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
748 picks · 634 bans
Disruptor
603 picks · 534 bans
Doom
532 picks · 1033 bans
Beastmaster
530 picks · 1305 bans
Ember Spirit
457 picks · 1167 bans
Pangolier
452 picks · 940 bans
Mirana
437 picks · 224 bans
Techies
435 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% ex-Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:12
Alliance 41%ex-Monaspa 59%
The model gave 59% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by Alliance in 54:44.
Game 2prediction correct25:36
Alliance 41%ex-Monaspa 59%
The model gave 59% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by ex-Monaspa in 1:01:50.
Game 3prediction correct17:32
Alliance 41%ex-Monaspa 59%
The model gave 59% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by ex-Monaspa in 36:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Monaspa · 59%
Series resultex-Monaspa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3