Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Goonsquadwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 435 bans
Mars
468 picks · 696 bans
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 535 bans
Bane
434 picks · 292 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 602 bans
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 595 bans
Sand King
345 picks · 506 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:26
Alliance 27%Goonsquad 73%
The model gave 73% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 39:32.
Game 2prediction correct15:33
Alliance 27%Goonsquad 73%
The model gave 73% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 37:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 73%
Series resultGoonsquad 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2