Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Tiny
Qupe · 27 games
Miranasignature
Qupe · 23 games
Tusk
Mo13ei · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 14 games
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 12 games
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
650 picks · 421 bans
Tusk
569 picks · 540 bans
Tiny
549 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
459 picks · 534 bans
Mirana
386 picks · 385 bans
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
Death Prophet
333 picks · 508 bans
Clockwerk
332 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Alliance
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:18
Alliance 69%IVY 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 42:54.
Game 2prediction correct36:8
Alliance 69%IVY 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 28:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 69%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2