Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 15 games
Mirana
Qupe · 15 games
Snapfire
Qupe · 12 games
Tiny
Qupe · 11 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 9 games
Rubick
Qupe · 9 games
Tusksignature
Mo13ei · 9 games
Silencersignature
jmn- · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
738 picks · 549 bans
Disruptor
605 picks · 521 bans
Doom
561 picks · 1094 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1268 bans
Techies
516 picks · 572 bans
Pangolier
475 picks · 946 bans
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1100 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:21
Alliance 54%IVY 46%
The model gave 54% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 41:12.
Game 2prediction correct35:16
Alliance 54%IVY 46%
The model gave 54% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 34:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 54%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2