Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Klim Sani4loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
258 picks · 307 bans
Dark Willow
250 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 235 bans
Treant Protector
214 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
204 picks · 405 bans
Phoenix
204 picks · 278 bans
Nature's Prophet
185 picks · 455 bans
Muerta
183 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
Alliance 58%Klim Sani4 42%
The model gave 58% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 42:55.
Game 2prediction correct25:25
Alliance 58%Klim Sani4 42%
The model gave 58% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 42:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 58%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2