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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 14 games
43%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 352 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
240 picks · 114 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 479 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
206 picks · 306 bans
46%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 309 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 408 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
193 picks · 178 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 356 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:12
Alliance 47%KZ TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Alliance in 34:39.
Game 2prediction correct16:27
Alliance 47%KZ TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 27:26.
Game 3prediction correct9:35
Alliance 47%KZ TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 28:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 53%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3