Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Level UP
Bloodseekeroften banned
Daxak · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 5 games
Underlordoften banned
OwnedMe · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
OwnedMe · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
MiLAN · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
OwnedMe · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
swedenstrong · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
718 picks · 618 bans
Disruptor
598 picks · 523 bans
Doom
503 picks · 976 bans
Beastmaster
500 picks · 1252 bans
Ember Spirit
444 picks · 1116 bans
Pangolier
438 picks · 896 bans
Mirana
418 picks · 222 bans
Enchantress
415 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
Alliance 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 43:51.
Game 2prediction correct11:36
Alliance 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 51%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2