Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 10 games
Svensignature
Shigetsu · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 8 games
Pugnasignature
Malady · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
mellojul · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
271 picks · 367 bans
Dark Willow
237 picks · 112 bans
Treant Protector
214 picks · 479 bans
Muerta
209 picks · 316 bans
Phoenix
205 picks · 295 bans
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 401 bans
Pangolier
186 picks · 348 bans
Vengeful Spirit
185 picks · 153 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:34
Alliance 25%Natus Vincere 75%
The model gave 75% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:51.
Game 2prediction correct13:33
Alliance 25%Natus Vincere 75%
The model gave 75% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2