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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 22 games
55%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 21 game
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 16 games
56%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
53%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 34 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
pma · 22 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 21 game
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 16 games
63%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
327 picks · 316 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 453 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
323 picks · 376 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 268 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
290 picks · 448 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 479 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
284 picks · 403 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 32%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:13
Alliance 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNande
48% · 230 games53% · 193 games
Lunagotthejuice
Luna
Doom
DoomPalantimos
45% · 209 games49% · 232 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
44% · 346 games52% · 367 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
48% · 32 games49% · 203 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskdEsire
50% · 242 games65% · 64 games
OmniknightRiddys
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed20:29
Alliance 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on Alliance — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 46:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackNande
48% · 36 games49% · 97 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Visage
VisagePalantimos
47% · 34 games52% · 34 games
Sand Kingpma
Sand King
Puck
PuckMo13ei
55% · 151 game51% · 114 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
58% · 19 games53% · 69 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Sniper
SniperdEsire
40% · 77 games43% · 3 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 3prediction missed22:28
Alliance 54%Natus Vincere Junior 46%
The model gave 54% on Alliance — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 46:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNande
58% · 235 games48% · 355 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Mars
MarsPalantimos
53% · 229 games50% · 470 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Puck
PuckMo13ei
51% · 216 games47% · 85 games
Earth SpiritNiku
Earth Spirit
Rubick
RubickdEsire
42% · 296 games47% · 206 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKidaro
54% · 272 games51% · 132 games
Treant ProtectorRiddys
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 54%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3