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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Nigma Galaxy

Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 6 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
KuroKy · 6 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 6 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
432 picks · 989 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
416 picks · 575 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 708 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 592 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 308 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
305 picks · 285 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 203 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 375 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:32
Alliance 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 50:46.
Game 2prediction missed29:34
Alliance 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on Alliance — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:52.
Game 3prediction correct34:22
Alliance 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 40:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 66%
Series resultAlliance 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3