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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
691 picks · 476 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
605 picks · 638 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
569 picks · 1110 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
526 picks · 496 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
520 picks · 1235 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1047 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 679 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
451 picks · 920 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:31
Alliance 44%Nigma Galaxy 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 50:36.
Game 2prediction correct8:36
Alliance 44%Nigma Galaxy 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2