Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Saksa · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
n0tail · 2 games
Clinkz
Topson · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Ceb · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
n0tail · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
MidOne · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
145 picks · 266 bans
Puck
144 picks · 335 bans
Earth Spirit
132 picks · 110 bans
Void Spirit
124 picks · 184 bans
Phoenix
113 picks · 126 bans
Keeper of the Light
96 picks · 177 bans
Nyx Assassin
95 picks · 337 bans
Rubick
93 picks · 46 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:7
Alliance 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by Alliance in 27:10.
Game 2prediction missed37:36
Alliance 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by Alliance in 48:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 55%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2