ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 8 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 8 games
Pucksignature
Topson · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 7 games
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 7 games
Hoodwink
Topson · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
418 picks · 195 bans
Mars
387 picks · 573 bans
Puck
383 picks · 876 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 205 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 328 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 232 bans
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 387 bans
Ancient Apparition
270 picks · 361 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:17
Alliance 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 45:04.
Game 2prediction correct31:32
Alliance 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 49:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 60%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2