Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Snapfire
Saksa · 12 games
Clinkzsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
Saksa · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 6 games
Kunkkasignature
bzm · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
406 picks · 295 bans
Mars
386 picks · 555 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 175 bans
Weaver
305 picks · 728 bans
Queen of Pain
301 picks · 361 bans
Kunkka
244 picks · 412 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 319 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 159 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total56% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:41
Alliance 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:04.
Game 2prediction correct5:26
Alliance 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 22:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 56%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2