Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 15 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 15 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 14 games
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 13 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 13 games
Bane
Misha · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
534 picks · 451 bans
Mars
457 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 544 bans
Bane
399 picks · 283 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 594 bans
Puck
343 picks · 793 bans
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 549 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 626 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 72%
Hero pool strength59% OG
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:31
Alliance 37%OG 63%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:13.
Game 2prediction correct33:39
Alliance 37%OG 63%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2