ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
SG e-sportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
405 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
292 picks · 595 bans
Puck
283 picks · 622 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 358 bans
Mars
270 picks · 472 bans
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 235 bans
Lina
255 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:18
Alliance 46%SG e-sports 54%
The model gave 54% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 27:02.
Game 2prediction missed22:20
Alliance 46%SG e-sports 54%
The model gave 54% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by Alliance in 42:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2