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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Team Bald Reborn

Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Gorgc · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Excalibur · 14 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Excalibur · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Pablo · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 9 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
bengan · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 8 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Gorgc · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
711 picks · 557 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 657 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
496 picks · 777 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
475 picks · 1003 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 420 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 398 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
312 picks · 154 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
297 picks · 560 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)13% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:27
Alliance 49%Team Bald Reborn 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 38:51.
Game 2prediction missed34:24
Alliance 49%Team Bald Reborn 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Alliance in 44:34.
Game 3prediction correct18:43
Alliance 49%Team Bald Reborn 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 54:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 51%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3