Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Iooften banned
Puppey · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 9 games
Bane
Puppey · 7 games
Outworld Destroyersignature
iceiceice · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
474 picks · 658 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 444 bans
Bane
453 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 564 bans
Dragon Knight
411 picks · 490 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 572 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:25
Alliance 28%Team Secret 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:15.
Game 2prediction correct17:19
Alliance 28%Team Secret 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 72%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2