WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
Miranasignature
Mira · 21 game
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 16 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
406 picks · 216 bans
Mars
401 picks · 633 bans
Puck
386 picks · 971 bans
Snapfire
362 picks · 201 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 347 bans
Tiny
311 picks · 224 bans
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 380 bans
Tusk
275 picks · 207 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 66%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:37
Alliance 30%Team Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:25.
Game 2prediction missed23:12
Alliance 30%Team Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Alliance in 33:43.
Game 3prediction correct2:25
Alliance 30%Team Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3