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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 26 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 20 games
80%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
74%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 18 games
83%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 18 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 17 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
463 picks · 636 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 433 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
446 picks · 268 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 560 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 636 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 474 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 552 bans
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
330 picks · 655 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 65%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total88% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:19
Alliance 12%Tundra Esports 88%
The model gave 88% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:57.
Game 2prediction correct14:30
Alliance 12%Tundra Esports 88%
The model gave 88% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 88%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2