Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Winter Bear
Omniknightoften banned
Flash · 7 games
Gyrocopter
Exotic Deer · 6 games
Snapfire
Ekki · 5 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 4 games
Tusk
Ekki · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Ekki · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Exotic Deer · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Exotic Deer · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
444 picks · 267 bans
Mars
394 picks · 541 bans
Weaver
329 picks · 420 bans
Death Prophet
312 picks · 556 bans
Queen of Pain
302 picks · 464 bans
Tiny
294 picks · 319 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 370 bans
Kunkka
267 picks · 496 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:12
Alliance 67%Winter Bear 33%
The model gave 67% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 31:04.
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Alliance 67%Winter Bear 33%
The model gave 67% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 22:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 67%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2