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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AllStarsloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HunterZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AllStars

Mars
Marsoften banned
blessed kid · 6 games
33%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Accel · 6 games
83%
Omniknight
Omniknight
blessed kid · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
20%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Accel · 5 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Benjimon · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Asao · 3 games
0%

HunterZ

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Prada · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
0%
Bane
Bane
Prada · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mjz · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
296 picks · 733 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
278 picks · 254 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 173 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
258 picks · 675 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
255 picks · 274 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 243 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 677 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
246 picks · 570 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% HunterZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% HunterZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
AllStars 46%HunterZ 54%
The model gave 54% on HunterZ — the game was taken by HunterZ in 28:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBenjimon
56% · 127 games42% · 90 games
SvenLumière
Sven
Lycan
Lycanblessed kid
51% · 57 games51% · 131 game
EarthshakerVitaly
Earthshaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAsao
45% · 112 games49% · 90 games
SnapfireMjz
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerFeelinG
52% · 72 games56% · 57 games
ChenPrada
Chen
Game 2prediction missed25:16
AllStars 45%HunterZ 55%
The model gave 55% on HunterZ — the game was taken by AllStars in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycanblessed kid
52% · 88 games49% · 95 games
Templar AssassinLumière
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBenjimon
50% · 176 games52% · 43 games
Night StalkerVitaly
Night Stalker
Snapfire
SnapfireAsao
48% · 88 games45% · 179 games
BatriderMjz
Batrider
Oracle
OracleFeelinG
43% · 59 games59% · 94 games
Naga SirenPrada
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction correct32:32
AllStars 46%HunterZ 54%
The model gave 54% on HunterZ — the game was taken by HunterZ in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBenjimon
49% · 97 games59% · 92 games
Nature's ProphetLumière
Nature's Prophet
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerblessed kid
46% · 75 games51% · 42 games
SlardarVitaly
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAsao
50% · 114 games57% · 160 games
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerFeelinG
38% · 82 games47% · 74 games
Ogre MagiPrada
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteHunterZ · 52%
Series resultHunterZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3