DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AllStarsloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PPPerrito Panzonwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AllStars
Abaddonoften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Accel · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 1 game
Death Prophet
Sacred · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Jakiro
Accel · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Sacred · 1 game
Sven
bsK7- · 1 game
Perrito Panzon
Nature's Prophetoften banned
K1 · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
ILICH- · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Elmisho · 1 game
Clockwerk
Elmisho · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
MoOz · 1 game
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
Silencer
MoOz · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
537 picks · 751 bans
Muerta
438 picks · 321 bans
Phoenix
433 picks · 708 bans
Clockwerk
412 picks · 404 bans
Bristleback
391 picks · 882 bans
Phantom Assassin
389 picks · 691 bans
Magnus
386 picks · 1032 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Perrito Panzon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Perrito Panzon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:28
AllStars 39%Perrito Panzon 61%
The model gave 61% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 26:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenbsK7-
Phantom AssassinK1
Night StalkerSacred
TidehunterILICH-
SilencerAccel
MarsDarkMago
49% · 26 games
Ancient ApparitionElmisho
44% · 119 games
JakiroMoOz
Game 2prediction missed34:14
AllStars 39%Perrito Panzon 61%
The model gave 61% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by AllStars in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinbsK7-
TerrorbladeK1
MarsSacred
Bounty HunterDarkMago
Winter WyvernAccel
AxeILICH-
51% · 106 games
PhoenixMoOz
50% · 49 games
WindrangerElmisho
Game 3prediction correct29:38
AllStars 39%Perrito Panzon 61%
The model gave 61% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightbsK7-
Phantom AssassinK1
Night StalkerSacred
Ember SpiritDarkMago
JakiroAccel
TimbersawILICH-
49% · 182 games
BatriderElmisho
48% · 44 games
SilencerMoOz
Model check result
Model favoritePerrito Panzon · 71%
Series resultPerrito Panzon 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3