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Streamers League #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALOHADANCE Teamloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nix Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ALOHADANCE Team

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
спортик · 8 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Madnexus · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
izverq · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
AfterLife · 4 games
25%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
спортик · 3 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
AfterLife · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Petushara · 2 games
0%

Nix Team

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
ct0m · 3 games
33%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
Cooman · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
bowbowbow · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
bowbowbow · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
alagon · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
alagon · 2 games
50%
Lich
Lich
ct0m · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Nix · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
516 picks · 333 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
443 picks · 239 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
401 picks · 179 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
351 picks · 323 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 507 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 290 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
290 picks · 132 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 510 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Nix Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Nix Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:31
ALOHADANCE Team 35%Nix Team 65%
The model gave 65% on Nix Team — the game was taken by Nix Team in 49:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
Earthshakerспортик
48% · 49 games53% · 233 games
WindrangerNix
Windranger
Lifestealer
LifestealerALOHADANCE
45% · 106 games48% · 129 games
Dark Seerbowbowbow
Dark Seer
Largo
LargoPetushara
54% · 216 games50% · 149 games
Earth SpiritgpK~
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowEARTHQ
48% · 277 games54% · 82 games
Nyx Assassinelmo
Nyx Assassin
Disruptor
Disruptorgood_mma
45% · 91 game53% · 146 games
Techiesalagon
Techies
Game 2prediction correct22:40
ALOHADANCE Team 36%Nix Team 64%
The model gave 64% on Nix Team — the game was taken by Nix Team in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckспортик
51% · 437 games56% · 239 games
WindrangerNix
Windranger
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerALOHADANCE
53% · 58 games48% · 274 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomPetushara
55% · 268 games51% · 215 games
Slardarbowbowbow
Slardar
Lich
Lichgood_mma
45% · 163 games46% · 155 games
Dark Willowelmo
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeEARTHQ
49% · 119 games47% · 162 games
Techiesalagon
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteNix Team · 74%
Series resultNix Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2