Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionAWAlpha Wolvesloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DGDEOS Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alpha Wolves
No games played over 6 months.
DEOS Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
458 picks · 1017 bans
Void Spirit
429 picks · 615 bans
Mars
374 picks · 661 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 654 bans
Earth Spirit
337 picks · 291 bans
Phoenix
277 picks · 388 bans
Monkey King
268 picks · 844 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Alpha Wolves
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Alpha Wolves
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct62:51
Alpha Wolves 59%DEOS Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Alpha Wolves — the game was taken by Alpha Wolves in 1:04:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlpha Wolves · 59%
Series resultDEOS Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1