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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BTC Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 8 games
38%
Kez
Kezsignature
Wits · 8 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
57%
Axe
Axesignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
17%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 6 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Gardick · 5 games
60%

BTC Gaming

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Prada · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 3 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Mjz · 3 games
33%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
554 picks · 909 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 401 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 652 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
480 picks · 613 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 874 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
376 picks · 609 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 503 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
358 picks · 215 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Amaru Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
Amaru Gaming 58%BTC Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWits
55% · 165 games45% · 161 game
Nature's ProphetLumière
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterOscar
54% · 172 games50% · 112 games
MuertaMnz
Muerta
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
53% · 174 games40% · 82 games
Dark WillowMjz
Dark Willow
Largo
LargoGardick
36% · 6 games52% · 162 games
Shadow DemonPrada
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct24:9
Amaru Gaming 58%BTC Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 38:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezWits
50% · 41 game52% · 100 games
Templar AssassinLumière
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterOscar
53% · 69 games46% · 45 games
SvenMnz
Sven
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
50% · 272 games46% · 120 games
Shadow DemonMjz
Shadow Demon
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorGardick
66% · 26 games44% · 143 games
DisruptorPrada
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 64%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2