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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Estar Backswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 5 games
20%
Kez
Kez
Wits · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 4 games
25%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshrac
TaiLung · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
0%

Estar Backs

Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 8 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Accel · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
563 picks · 728 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 354 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 658 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 549 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
394 picks · 134 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 184 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 532 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 515 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:42
Amaru Gaming 50%Estar Backs 50%
The model gave 50% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzWits
61% · 23 games49% · 123 games
Shadow FiendbsK7-
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckTaiLung
48% · 168 games48% · 201 game
JakiroAccel
Jakiro
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOscar
56% · 76 games
Undying
UndyingGardick
45% · 57 games
Game 2prediction missed41:18
Amaru Gaming 49%Estar Backs 51%
The model gave 51% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 47:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaWits
49% · 93 games41% · 17 games
OmniknightbsK7-
Omniknight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTaiLung
60% · 115 games47% · 305 games
JakiroAccel
Jakiro
Tidehunter
TidehunterOscar
55% · 110 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorGardick
50% · 4 games
Game 3prediction correct13:44
Amaru Gaming 49%Estar Backs 51%
The model gave 51% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckTaiLung
47% · 58 games55% · 128 games
Shadow FiendbsK7-
Shadow Fiend
Clinkz
ClinkzWits
54% · 13 games51% · 19 games
Treant ProtectorAccel
Treant Protector
Axe
AxeOscar
37% · 42 games
Undying
UndyingGardick
48% · 34 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 56%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3